Russia’s so-called ‘gas weapon’ is nothing but a myth | Russia-Ukraine war

A lot has been stated and written about Russia’s proverbial “gasoline weapon”. The argument goes that prime dependence on Russian pure gasoline makes nations in East and Southeast Europe assume twice earlier than they contemplate making any transfer in opposition to Moscow. The Kremlin is able to punish these daring to oppose it by introducing harsh clauses to gasoline offers or, worse nonetheless, chopping off deliveries. Buddies, alternatively, get rewarded. Living proof: the “unbelievable” deal Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Serbia, which many imagine ensured Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s re-election.

Nonetheless, we’ve seen lately that this so-called “gasoline weapon” does not likely exist. On April 26, Gazprom turned off the faucet for Bulgaria and Poland after they refused to adjust to a unilateral change of their provide contract dictated by Putin and to pay for his or her month-to-month uptake in roubles. A number of weeks later, each international locations are doing simply high-quality. The Russian choice has not unleashed pandemonium in both financial system. It has not triggered a home political disaster, a lot much less led to a significant shift in Polish or Bulgarian international coverage. If something, the cutoff has strengthened these international locations’ resolve.

Even Bulgaria, probably the most dovish amongst doves in relation to Russia, has proven some braveness. On April 28, hours after gasoline stopped flowing, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov travelled to Kyiv to debate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy what Sofia can do to assist. Although Bulgaria is formally not sending navy help to Ukraine, it’s a public secret that munitions and arms from its defence producers are being transferred through third events, notably Poland.

Bulgaria’s response to the disruption of the gasoline flows from Russia deserves particular consideration. In distinction to Poland, which at the moment takes lower than half of its gasoline from the Russian Federation, the Balkan nation is reliant on Russia’s Gazprom for over 90 % of its provides. However not like earlier cutoffs in 2006 and 2009, this time across the authorities in Sofia clearly had a plan. For example, the state-owned dealer Bulgargaz has contracted shipments of liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) that at the moment are getting into Bulgaria by way of the Revithoussa terminal in Greece. Further volumes are additionally arriving from Romania, by way of the Trans-Balkan Pipeline which, till TurkStream began work in 2020-21, served Gazprom. The truth that the disruption occurred in summer time, after the top of the heating season, is making the Bulgarian authorities’ life simpler, too.

The principle factor, nevertheless, is that Bulgaria’s long-delayed interconnector pipeline with Greece (ICGB) is because of come on-line on June 30 or quickly thereafter. As soon as it’s up and operating, Bulgaria will likely be importing one billion cubic meters (bcm) – equivalent to about one-third of its annual demand – from Azerbaijan, as ICGB connects to the so-called Trans Adriatic Pipeline.

LNG will likely be coming from the terminals in Turkey and, after the top of 2023, from a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) subsequent to the northeastern Greek port metropolis of Alexandroupolis. On Might 3, Prime Minister Petkov witnessed the launch of works on the FSRU within the firm of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and EU Council President Charles Michel. Additionally current had been Aleksandar Vucic and Dimitar Kovacevski, North Macedonia’s prime minister. The struggle in Ukraine has given tailwinds to new infrastructure initiatives that can diversify gasoline deliveries to the Balkans and redraw the provision routes.

But, within the quick time period, it’s enterprise as normal. Regardless of being shunned by Gazprom, Bulgaria isn’t stopping flows from Russia to Serbia and Hungary by way of TurkStream. Sofia generates earnings from the Russian shipments passing by way of, doesn’t wish to spoil relations with Budapest and Belgrade, and in addition desires to seem like appearing in good religion on its contractual obligations vis-à-vis Moscow in mild of the looming arbitration case.

Opposite to well-liked perception, Southeast Europe doesn’t depend upon Russian gasoline. The principle purpose is that native international locations eat restricted volumes: three bcm per 12 months for Bulgaria and Serbia every and 6 bcm for Greece. Romania, a big market the place annual demand stands at 12 bcm, in the meantime, barely takes any Russian gasoline in any respect. With the fitting infrastructural hyperlinks, Gazprom may be changed by various suppliers.

That’s the reason Greece and North Macedonia are mulling an interconnector pipeline that is also prolonged to Kosovo. The identical for Bulgaria and Serbia. There are long-standing plans for an offshoot of TAP into the Western Balkans: the Ionian-Adriatic Pipeline that might serve Albania, Montenegro and Bosnia. Extra instantly, gasoline itself may be changed by electrical energy, significantly if costs shift in favour of the latter. Due to massive spare capability, Bulgaria and Romania each export electrical energy to the likes of Greece and Turkey, the place demand typically outpaces provide. Final however not the least, there may be the inexperienced transition. Funding into renewable vitality and vitality effectivity – a precedence on which the European Union is as eager as ever – will form the way forward for Southeast Europe.

The query, actually, is concerning the value. Lately, Russian pipeline gasoline based mostly on long-term contracts and listed to grease is cheaper than what spot markets – reflecting provide and demand – cost. Diversification away from Russia has a price ticket. Nonetheless, tomorrow the stability might change. A slowdown in international financial progress and depressed demand for vitality will make gasoline cheaper, too. Then Balkan international locations will likely be in a a lot better place in negotiating with Gazprom, ought to the Russians wish to shore up their market share.

The principle crunch has to do with politics. As long as there are politicians and companies in Southeast Europe benefiting from the present setup and completely satisfied to place diversification of provides and modernisation of the vitality sector on the backburner, Russia can have a card to play. It will possibly purchase all of the assist it wants and construct mammoth initiatives akin to TurkStream with ease. That’s the reason the present disaster can be a chance to shake issues up. What occurs in Bulgaria might set an instance for others within the area.

The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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