Podgorica, Montenegro – A bunch of sophisticated elements are pressuring the Adriatic nation of Montenegro to strike a fragile international coverage stability.

Since gaining independence from Serbia in 2006, Montenegro has largely performed a pro-Western international coverage.

Having joined NATO in 2017, the Balkan nation values its relationships with Washington, London, Brussels, and Berlin.

But on the identical time, Montenegro has been traditionally near Russia, which shares a Slavic and Orthodox heritage.

Montenegro becoming a member of NATO was essential to Western powers and at the moment they need Podgorica to toe the road in opposition to Moscow.

“Contemplating Russia’s base in Syria, rising its affect in Montenegro might facilitate [Moscow’s] connection from the Adriatic to the Mediterranean,” Dilek Kütük, a Skopje-based analyst, advised Al Jazeera.

“Along with Serbia, it might pose a menace in the midst of Europe. This was unacceptable to NATO.”

Russian vacationers and traders have been extraordinarily essential to Montenegro’s economic system.

However Podgorica supported Washington and Brussels’ sanctions on Russia in 2014, in response to occasions in Crimea and Donbas, which fuelled a level of friction in bilateral relations. So did the alleged Russian-backed coup try of 2016 and Montenegro’s entry into NATO the next yr.

Regardless of all that, Montenegrin-Russian financial relations remained robust. Russia, as the highest international investor in Montenegro, places a lot cash within the Balkan nation’s actual property and tourism sectors.

In 2019, Russia accounted for 26 p.c of international funding within the Montenegrin economic system. Lax international funding legal guidelines have made Montenegro an interesting nation to some – and such insurance policies have attracted no scarcity of questionable companies and oligarchs from Russia.

Since February 24, Montenegrins have been involved concerning the Russian-Ukrainian warfare’s affect on their nation’s economic system.

Extremely depending on vacationers from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, this battle and the sanctions imposed on Moscow are anticipated to hit tourism revenue this summer time whereas stopping, or a minimum of enormously limiting, additional Russian investments right here.

With a hospitality trade battered by two consecutive summers of COVID-19, Montenegrins had excessive hopes for travel-starved Russian, Belarusian, and Ukrainian guests.

Put merely, this warfare couldn’t have come at a worse time for Montenegro’s tourism sector.

Advanced home dynamics

Montenegrin identification politics and deep inner divisions complicate Podgorica’s stance on Ukraine.

On one hand, pro-Western politicians consider Podgorica ought to again Kyiv in alignment with NATO. But pro-Serbian teams within the nation, such because the Democratic Entrance, advocate neutrality, not wanting Montenegro to degrade its historic relationship with Moscow.

“The query of a pro-Russian or pro-Western alignment feeds right into a longstanding fissure in Montenegrin politics and identification. Montenegrins have demonstrated in assist of Ukraine whereas Serb nationalists in Montenegro have demonstrated in assist of Russia,” mentioned Marco Attila Hoare, a historian and affiliate professor on the Sarajevo College of Science and Know-how.

“With Montenegro’s inhabitants cut up between supporters of independence who establish as Montenegrin or who belong to ethnic minorities, and those that opposed independence and establish with Serbia, it’s primarily the previous which have emerged because the pro-Ukrainian and the latter because the pro-Russian camp.”

Nevertheless, not all within the pro-Belgrade camp assist Russia’s warfare in Ukraine.

Some favour neutrality, citing NATO’s bombing Podgorica in 1999 and their fears of turning into America’s “puppet state”. They’re additionally decided to protect Montenegro’s longstanding ties to Russia and Slavic international locations.

Others who again a impartial place contemplate NATO’s eastward enlargement as an element which fuelled the battle, whilst they criticise Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dealing with of the perceived Ukrainian menace to Russia.

But some hardline factions in Montenegro overtly again Russia’s warfare.

For instance, at a protest in Niksic, some Montenegrins expressed assist for Russia’s “makes an attempt to guard their individuals in Ukraine” whereas waving Russian and Serbian flags.

A slogan seen on one banner learn “Serbs in Montenegro – Russians in Ukraine.” Whereas driving in Montenegro not too long ago, this creator seen the pro-war Z image spray-painted in sure areas.

‘Fertile terrain for exterior affect’

In the meantime, the nation’s management has not been in a position to stability Montenegrin and Serbian identities and specialists say the governments in each Belgrade and Podgorica bear duty.

“The Serbian authorities nonetheless grapples with the concept the 2 are not a part of the identical union, and Montenegro’s international coverage won’t observe Serbia’s. The Montenegrin authorities additionally has not finished sufficient to accommodate the Serbian neighborhood, and as a substitute, the regime makes use of it as a scapegoat,” Vuk Vuksanovic, senior researcher on the Belgrade Heart for Safety Coverage, advised Al Jazeera.

“Within the divided society, the place one brother declares himself a Serb and the opposite a Montenegrin, the political ruptures are fertile terrain for exterior affect.”

The Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro is the “elephant within the room” as Dusica Tomovic, the managing editor at Balkan Perception, put it.

Intently tied to Russia, this spiritual establishment is politically influential in Montenegro.

“Whoever is supported by the Serbian Orthodox Church … will get big advantages from that assist,” mentioned Tomovic. “So now even the present authorities can not threat worsening relations with the Serbian Orthodox Church.”

However Podgorica has taken concrete steps in opposition to Russia since February 24.

These embody cracking down on Russian media, ordering Russian diplomats to go away Montenegro, suspending flights, prohibiting transactions with Russia’s Central Financial institution, banning Russian overflight of Montenegrin airspace and pledging this month to affix all EU sanctions.

Nonetheless, even the brand new authorities of pro-European Union Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic can go solely up to now by way of strikes that might upset the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro.

The warfare in Ukraine has shrunk the room for geopolitical neutrality in Europe, leaving Montenegro in a tough spot.

The previous Yugoslav republic’s challenges vis-à-vis this battle underscore how rising bifurcation of the worldwide political economic system between East and West is worsening the Western Balkans’ longstanding fractures.

The longer the warfare continues, the harder it will likely be for Montenegro to navigate Europe’s gravest post-1945 safety disaster.